Will Bitcoin Pump & Create Another Bubble?

Orren Prunckun
3 min readOct 18, 2024

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Here are the charts of 1) the 90 days before the Bitcoin Halving date, until 2) the end of peak mania post-Halving date, (before it crashed) for all (three) previous cycles:

*The red line indicates the date of the Halving (when the reward for mining new Bitcoin is halved.) The green line indicates the date when the mania period started.

323 days between the Halving and when the mania period started. The mania period lasted for 48 days.
260 days between the Halving and when the mania period started. The mania period lasted for 77 days.
218 days between the Halving and when the mania period started. The mania period lasted for 119 days.
If history repeats itself then the start of the mania will start approx October 30, 2024 and end approx April, 22 2024.

If history repeats itself then the start of the mania will start approx October 30, 2024 and end approx April 22 2024

The patterns are remarkably the same for both sets of charts.

For each Halving, the time between 1) the Halving and 2) the start of the mania gets shorter-and-shorter and the time between 1) the start of the mania and the end of the mania gets longer-and-longer each cycle.

However, 1) the 90 days before Bitcoin Halving date, until the mania begins in the above charts, look like flat lines.

But they are not.

They look flat due to the Y-Axis scale.

If you zoom in, here are the charts of 1) 90 days before the Bitcoin Halving date, until the mania starts:

*I’ve left off the start of peak mania post-Halving for all three previous cycles for the above reason.

The patterns are remarkably the same for both sets of charts, and, for each Halving, the 1) rally and peak and 2) the subsequent sideway downward movement get’s later-and-later each cycle.

Obviously, none of this is financial advice.

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Orren Prunckun
Orren Prunckun

Written by Orren Prunckun

Entrepreneur. Australia Day Citizen of the Year for Unley. Recognised in the Top 50 Australian Startup Influencers. http://orrenprunckun.com