“You Never Believed China, But Now Magically You Do…”

DeepSeek hit my radar on 6 January 2025.

I wasn’t impressed and haven’t revisited it.

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was inaugurated.

During his address, he announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing concerns over fentanyl shipments from China. (https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-hong-kong-stocks-tumble-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-22/)

Coincidentally, DeepSeek-R1 was released the same day (though due to time zones, it was still 21 January 2015 in the United States).

China claimed the development of DeepSeek-R1 cost $6 million (lol) (https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/big-tech-faces-heat-chinas-deepseek-sows-doubts-billion-dollar-spending-2025-01-27/).

This raises eyebrows, as China’s track record on transparency remains questionable — examples include misinformation around COVID-19, surveillance and data collection practices, human rights issues in Xinjiang, territorial claims in the South China Sea, the Belt and Road Initiative, censorship, military expansion, and actions in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

China responded to Trump’s tariffs with a statement on 21 January 2025: “We always believe that there is no winner in a trade war or tariff war. China will always firmly safeguard its national interests.” (https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-is-discussing-10-tariff-china-feb-1-2025-01-21/)

By January 26, 2025, DeepSeek-R1 became a significant news story (Google Trends confirms this).

formsWithin two days, the ensuing market reaction was swift and dramatic:

• Marvell Technology shares dropped 19%

• Nvidia shares dropped 17%

• Broadcom shares dropped the same amount

• ASML shares dropped 7%

• Alphabet shares dropped 4%

• Microsoft shares dropped 2%

The timeline invites several theories that intertwine geopolitics, economic strategy, and technological influence:

1) DeepSeek-R1 was intentionally timed for release to destabilise U.S. technology markets, particularly targeting semiconductor and AI-related companies that are key to U.S. dominance.

The release coincided with Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, creating a perfect storm for market volatility.

The timing aligns with China’s statement about trade wars having no winners, suggesting a coordinated effort to rattle the U.S. economy while showcasing technological parity or superiority.

2) DeepSeek-R1’s release was an act of economic retaliation disguised as a technological breakthrough, aimed at destabilising confidence in U.S. tech stocks, particularly those reliant on AI and semiconductor industries.

Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell are key players in the semiconductor supply chain, which China has been strategically working to dominate or disrupt.

A sudden market drop undermines investor confidence in U.S. tech innovation, potentially diverting capital and resources to China or non-U.S. markets.

3) DeepSeek-R1 could contain backdoors or vulnerabilities deliberately inserted by Chinese entities to infiltrate systems that adopt it globally.

The rapid rise in attention might be part of an orchestrated plan to proliferate its use while gaining potential access to foreign systems.

4) DeepSeek-R1 and the subsequent market response could have been part of a larger, covert effort to undermine Trump’s economic policies and reassert global interdependence.

The timing of the release, directly following Trump’s tariff announcements, could be interpreted as a signal of resistance to unilateral U.S. economic aggression.

By causing economic instability, it might pressure Trump to reconsider or retract tariff threats.

5) The market movements following the DeepSeek-R1 news suggest potential insider trading or deliberate manipulation by parties anticipating the market reaction.

The sudden drop in major tech stocks could have been premeditated.

As the media cycle shifts, so will the hype around DeepSeek-R1.

The recent drops in tech stocks are unlikely to persist, punishing paper hands.

We’re in a global liquidity injection period, where surplus capital ultimately flows into assets.

Long-term investors with diamond hands will likely benefit as many of these stocks rebound higher.

And remember LLMs (Large Language Models) are a commodity.

By definition, all LLMs do is predict sequences of words.